How to Turn Sales Activity Into Predictable Growth

Research & Sources / Sales & Revenue Growth

A hunter goes out each morning and hopes to bring something home. Some days are good, some days are empty. A farmer works differently. They know how many seeds to plant in spring, roughly how much each field will give, and when the harvest comes. Both work hard. Only one can plan the winter. Predictable growth means moving from hunting to farming.

Why sales often feels like hunting

In many small and medium-sized companies, revenue comes in waves. A great month, then two weak ones. A big client, then nothing. The team works hard all the time, but nobody can say with confidence what next quarter will look like.

This is stressful for everyone. It makes hiring, investing and planning a gamble.

The chain behind every sale

Every sale is the end of a chain. A certain number of conversations lead to a certain number of real opportunities. A certain share of opportunities becomes proposals. A certain share of proposals is signed.

Once you know the numbers in your chain, you can work backwards. If you want ten new clients next quarter, and one in four proposals is signed, you need forty proposals. If half of all opportunities lead to a proposal, you need eighty opportunities. And so on, all the way back to the activity you need today.

Jason Jordan and Robert Kelly found that companies with a clearly defined sales process and regular pipeline management grew revenue faster than those without.¹ The chain of numbers is the heart of that process.

Activity is the seed, not the harvest

This is where activity finally makes sense. Activity is the right number of the right seeds, planted at the right time. Not “make as many calls as possible”, but “we need this many real conversations each week to reach our goal”.

Be careful though. If activity numbers become the target themselves, people find ways to hit the number without creating value. Economists call this Goodhart’s law.² Always keep the chain connected to real results.

Three things that make growth predictable

A steady rhythm. The same amount of prospecting every week, even in busy weeks. Farmers do not skip planting because the harvest is going well. Gaps in prospecting become gaps in revenue months later.

Honest numbers. Use your real conversion rates from the past, not hopes. People tend to be too optimistic about timing, a pattern known as the planning fallacy.³

Regular review. Check the chain every week. If one link weakens, you see it early.

What this means for you this week

• Write down your sales chain with real numbers from the last six months.
• Work backwards from next quarter’s goal to the weekly activity you need.
• Block fixed time for prospecting every week, including busy ones.
• Review the chain every Friday for 15 minutes.

Hunting is exciting. Farming lets you sleep at night.

Sources

1. Jordan, J. & Kelly, R. (2015). Companies with a Formal Sales Process Generate More Revenue. Harvard Business Review, January 2015. hbr.orgA defined sales process, regular pipeline reviews and clear stage rules go together with faster revenue growth.
2. Wikipedia. Goodhart’s law. en.wikipedia.org“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.”
3. Buehler, R., Griffin, D. & Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the “planning fallacy”. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(3), 366-381. doi.orgPeople consistently underestimate how long tasks will take, even when past experience says otherwise.